Political Science Department Examines Presidential Election
Dr. Glenn Antizzo and MC political science students weigh in on the state of the 2024 presidential race.
The 2024 presidential election is right around the corner, and the campaigns are entering their final stretch. The choice is between Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump. Mississippi College Political Science professor Dr. Glenn Antizzo says that the polls are too close to call.
“The polls are closer in this presidential election I think than I have ever seen in my life,” Antizzo said. “Everything is in the margin of error. Usually, a poll has about a thousand respondents with a plus or minus of 3%. In this case, the polls, particularly in battleground states, are looking like they are within one or two points of each other. What I’m saying is that every single poll is in the margin of error; essentially, it’s a coin toss of who's going to win the election right now.”
The election could come down to seven swing states. Polling suggests that the swing states this election are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
The first three of which are known as the “Blue Wall.” This region has historically voted for Democrats in presidential elections, but Trump won all three in 2016 and narrowly lost them in 2020. Ever since 2016, these states have been considered swing states.
Antizzo says that Pennsylvania’s most populated areas, such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, are considered liberal areas, with the rest of the state being mostly rural and conservative. Suburbs may be the tipping point in who wins the state.
“There are some suburban areas of Philadelphia that may be ready to break for Trump,” Antizzo said. “I think Trump’s got a better chance in the Pittsburgh area with his talks about tariffs to support certain industries. I think people who are working in what’s left of the steel industry will welcome that. I think Pennsylvania is ever so slightly leaning towards Trump.”
Antizzo believes that Wisconsin is in a similar position, as that state is mostly rural with two major cities: Milwaukee and Madison.
In Michigan, Antizzo says election results could be affected by Detroit’s high Muslim and Arab population.
“There’s disappointment in the Harris-Biden administration, because the Biden administration has a very pro Israel position in the Middle East,” Antizzo said. “A lot of people who live in Detroit, who are either Arab, Muslim, or both, are not happy about that. There’s a possibility that they may vote for Trump over Harris to teach the Democrats a lesson, or they may just stay home.”
While the majority of the state voted for Obama in 2008, North Carolina has traditionally voted Republican over the last few years. According to Antizzo, the eastern part of the state is more liberal, while the western part is more conservative. The battleground lies in the middle. He also said that the controversial Republican candidate in the state’s gubernatorial race and the recent hurricanes could weigh down the presidential ticket.
“There are two things that make me a little nervous about it,” Antizzo said. “There is a highly flawed candidate for governor that I think is going to lose. The question is does he drag down the Republican vote in that state or voters split. Do they vote for Trump and another person for governor? I don’t know. The other thing is, the western part of the state has, of course, been hit real hard by the hurricane. They may affect the voting in terms of ease of access when it comes to voting and getting absentee ballots to these voters.”
Antizzo feels that Georgia is the swing state with the highest chance of a Trump victory. However, he does cite some concerns for Republicans with shifting demographics in the Atlanta Metro area that helped win the state for Biden four years ago.
“The problem is, Metro Atlanta has attracted a lot of people to move there, because the cost of living is low, it’s a nice place to live, and the weather is nice,” Antizzo said. “Metro Atlanta absolutely dominates the state.”
Similarly, Arizona was also a traditionally Republican state that was flipped by Biden in 2020. Arizona is also similar to North Carolina as the Republicans have a divisive candidate in their senate race.
“In Arizona, you’ve got Kari Lake running for the open senate there,” Antizzo said. “Mrs. Lake is a bit flawed, also, and maybe a drag on the ticket.”
The one swing state that Antizzo is unsure about is Nevada. Nevada was solidly Republican until 2008. Ever since then, the Democratic candidate won the state. The polls suggest that the state might in play this cycle. Antizzo believes that policy proposals from the former president might appeal to Nevada voters.
“As time has gone on, it has picked up a more heavily Hispanic population,” Antizzo said. “People are moving there. It’s a pleasant place. Las Vegas seems like a lot of fun. People are able to find jobs in the hospitality sector. There is also a heavy union presence there. I would say it’s trending more blue. I would say that’s a hard one. I really couldn’t say right now.”
Senior Political Science Major Keiwon Rodgers shared some differing views on certain swing states than Antizzo. Rodgers predicts that Trump will win the “Blue Wall,” but that Harris will win North Carolina. He argued that Georgia is more uncertain.
“I think Georgia will be more of a tossup, considering everything that has happened since the election in 2020 with charges against Trump and what happened with the district attorney there,” Rodgers said. “I see Georgia as a tossup, but definitely see North Carolina going with the Democratic Party, because they have a Democratic governor. There is one of two in the south that have one. There is also a high population of African-Americans in that area that supported Kamala Harris and her views.”
He also predicted that Arizona and Nevada will be in Harris' corner.
“I think she will win those areas, because they have a lot more Democratic ideologies,” Rodgers said. “Her plans will help her chances. Her programs will bring people who are down and bring them up to have opportunities to succeed. In an economy where things are so high, I think it will bring lower class voters in Arizona and Nevada to vote for her.”
Freshman political science student Ben Gipson was a little more optimistic for the Republicans, especially in the southern swing states.
“I think nationwide, black men and blue collar workers are voting for Trump,” Gipson said. “I think Kamala Harris is out of touch with most of the south.”
Polls open at 7 am on November 5th and close at 7 pm.
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